Türkiye'de seçim

Elections in Turkey:

3 scenarios to help define future policy

With Turkey having entered election year, it is only a matter of time before speculation turns to the likely consequences for foreign policy of the possible outcomes. With the political environment in Turkey capable of sudden change, the febrile atmospherics - featuring a surge in nationalism and heightened European Union skepticism - are not necessarily a good gauge of how foreign relations will pan out in a year.

Foreign policy is the preserve of the government, supported by the ministry of foreign affairs. That's why it is the outcome of parliamentary elections, scheduled for November 2007, that is likely to be crucial. Given the role that both the prime minister and the foreign minister have played in the current administration and periodically throughout the 1990s, the impact of both personalities may well be significant again.

However, the government and the Foreign Ministry are not the only foreign policy actors in Turkey. The Kemalist state, and the military in particular, has traditionally played the role of gatekeeper of the strategic orientation of the state. That has corresponded to a European vocation, and involved safeguarding both Turkey's territorial integrity and secular orientation. The presidency, though mainly titular in function, has agenda setting and formal powers that are worth taking seriously too. In short, the system has institutional checks and balances.